 The 2012 Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight with the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the Miami Marlins at the Marlins brand spanking new palatial estate in Miami. I say officially with a grain of salt; the Mariners and Athletics already played two regular season games last week in Tokyo. For all intents and purposes though, MLB is calling Wednesday April 4th Opening Day, so that's what we'll call it here. This past offseason was one of the craziest in years for MLB, making tonight's match-up a really interesting look at the state of affairs in baseball.
You have the St. Louis Cardinals, the defending World Series Champions, are customarily opening the season... But not at home. Instead they head to Miami for a solid first look at the Marlins new home. St. Louis comes in without Albert Pujols for the first time since 2000. After 11 seasons in St. Louis, Fat Albert left for the greener pastures (i.e. more lucrative and cash filled) of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. St. Louis also opens without ace pitcher Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright returns from Tommy John surgery a year ago as a question mark (Kyle Lohse will get the start against Josh Johnson in Miami) and without Tony LaRussa, who retired after 16 seasons in St. Louis and was replaced by rookie, first time manager Mike Matheny.
And on the other side of this match-up, the Miami Marlins, opening their brand new retractable roof Marlins Park. The stadium itself is a good indicator of all the change the former Florida Marlins have undergone this offseason. Gone are the days of playing in a retrofitted football stadium they shared with the Miami Dolphins. Gone are the days of constant rebuilds and low key manager hires. Gone are the teal and black. When the Marlins take the field tonight Ozzie Guillen will be managing a completely new organization, not just a new team. The new colors, logo, and park really understate the real changes for the Marlins; their roster. Miami went on a spending spree this offseason, adding former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes, White Sox starter Mark Buerhle, Padres closer Heath Bell, and trading for Cubs start Carlos Zambrano. These pieces were added on top of an already solid core that included Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Hanley Ramirez (moving to 3rd to accommodate Reyes,) Giancarlo (nee Mike) Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Gaby Sanchez. The new look Marlins are taking the pursuit of a World Series seriously for the first time in years and look to make it a possibility. This may only be a one game affair but it appears to be a good outing for MLB, showcasing all of the craziness that can happen in the offseason. The two teams share the same Spring Training home, they play each other in the first game, and might just be preparing to meet again in the post season.
MLB Season Preview
A lot has changed over one offseason, the greatest of which is the change from 4 post season teams in each league to 5. The addition of an extra Wild Card team per league could lead to added interest down the stretch but really undermines the excitement that a last day tie can bring in September. Look at last year. The Wild Card races in the AL and NL both came down to the last games of the season in 2011. Would this year carry the same excitement knowing that Atlanta, St. Louis, Tampa, and Boston all would have made it under the current system? The last day would've been rendered meaningless. It should be interesting to see how the new playoff system works out.
Here's (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7637317/mlb-new-postseason-plan) a good link for how the new playoff system will work but for the sake of being complete, I'll run it down:
Wild Card Round: Wild Card 1 and 2 in each league will play each other to determine who moves on. It's a one game affair, loser's out.
LDS: The #1 Seeds will play the Wild Card winners and the #2 Seeds will play the #3 Seeds.The difference this year is that the lower seeded team gets 2 home games to start the series, then the higher seed gets 3 straight at home to end the series. So, it's possible that the 2nd Wild Card team could end up with 86 wins, beat the 1st Wild Card team with 95 wins, then get 2 home games against a #1 seed with 105 wins. It's a complete mess.
LCS: Same as before. The series follows the 2-3-2 format. The higher seed gets the first 2 games and the last 2 games at home.
World Series: Same as before. 2-3-2 format. Home Field Advantage is still decided based on the winner of the All-Star Game.
So that is the new post season format in a nutshell. Without further adieu, here's how I see things shaking out.
Note: * Denotes Wild Card teams.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Rays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The table is set for another disappointing season for my Boston Red Sox. The Yankees didn't do anything to make themselves significantly better but what they already have makes them the clear class of the division (despite how much it pains me to say it.) The Rays continue to have the cupboard stocked with Major League ready arms and positional players with high upside.The Red Sox look firmly entrenched as the #3 team but I personally am not sleeping on the Blue Jays. The Jays are armed with a lot of offensive firepower, lead by Jose Bautista. This season Bautista will be surrounded by even more talent as the Jays get a full season out of Brett Lawrie at 3rd, Kelly Johnson at 2nd, and Edwin Encarnacion at DH. The Big weakness for the Sox and the Jays both is pitching. The Red Sox starting pitching is 3 deep with Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Bucholz, but barren behind them. They will start the season with Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront as the 4th and 5th starters, which simultaneously weakens the bullpen where they will already be missing Andrew Bailey to a thumb injury. For the Jays, it's all starting pitching problems. Ricky Romero has been a consistently inconsistent pitcher. Romero was 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA a year ago but can you count on that coming again? His career numbers are solid, not extravagant, and he will be relief upon to be their #1 starter. Behind Romero the Jays gave a 3 year extension to Brandon Morrow who also has been traditionally inconsistent. Morrow not doubt has the stuff of a #1 or #2 starter but control and health issues have continually derailed him. The Jays bullpen is a strength but it is hard to see them holding up if Jays starters can't manage to routinely go 6 or 7 innings. Despite bringing back their classic logo, it is hard to see the Orioles making an impact in this division unless they figure out a way to stop their rivals from scoring runs. The offense may be able to keep up with stars like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Mark Reynolds. Barring a major step forward from the starting pitching and catcher Matt Wieters, the Orioles look to stay behind their much better armed division-mates.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox
It's hard to see this division amounting to anything more than a 2 team race. The Detroit Tigers are armed with the best pitching staff and offense in the entire division. Already armed with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez (if he can return from injury,) and Alex Avila, the Tigers went out and acquired Prince Fielder on a 9 year contract to be their new first baseman (with Cabrera moving back to an old position, third base.) Fielder should add a lot of pop to the offense, along with the proper protection for Cabrera in a lineup that hasn't traditionally offered him that. The move should pay its worth in terms of what Fielder adds PLUS the extra Cabrera can add when not having to shoulder the load himself. The pitching staff is anchored by reigning AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander. Verlander's stuff is absolutely sick and I can't remember a pitcher in years that looks as relaxed as he does when he takes the mound. Verlander's cerebral approach and relative ease of work should continue to keep him at the top of his game. Behind Verlander, the Tigers can still throw out Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello, making any 3 or 4 game set with the Tigers an endurance trial. Behind the Tigers it's easy to see the Indians continuing to take the next step. Asdrubal Cabrera had an All-Star season a year ago that it's hard to see him repeating, but if youngsters Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley continue to develop, and the starting pitching of Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson, and Derek Lowe pitches to their potential, the Indians could easily add to their 80 win total of 2011. The rest of this division will be made up of teams continuing to better themselves. The Twins fortunes will always rest on the health of their stars Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. If these two can combine for 250-300 Games Played, the Twins have a chance to at least get to 3rd in this division, if not shock everyone and take the division. The Kansas City Royals will continue to get better along their youth movement, provided young stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas continue to develop. The Chicago White Sox had the equivalent of a fire sale in the offseason, sending out manager Ozzie Guillen, pitcher Mark Buerhle, outfielder Carlos Quentin, and others. The White Sox have the talent to succeed but will need a lot of moving parts to set right for rookie manager Robin Ventura.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
This division won't be as much about what the Rangers haven't done but what the Angels have done. The Angels went out in the offseason and answered a big need by signing Albert Pujols away from St. Louis and C.J. Wilson away from the Rangers. These two additions alone should be enough to push them to the front of the division. Add in that the Angels will finally get Kendry Morales back after nearly 2 years on the disabled list and the picture becomes a bit clearer. With a pitching staff anchored by Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana, and a lineup featuring Pujols, Morales, Howie Kendrick, and Torii Hunter, the Angels look to become the class of the West. That's not to say that the Rangers are any worse. After appearing in, and losing, the last two World Series', the Rangers were going to be faced with some potential challenges. The first was starting pitching. After balking at the asking price for Wilson, the Rangers moved on and signed a deal with Japanese import Yu Darvish. Darvish has been something of a crossover megastar in Japan and has been the rumor of MLB speculation for years. Darvish comes with high credentials, which will only increase the pressure on him to become an ace immediately. Behind Darvish, the Rangers will be relying on converted closer Neftali Feliz and starter Derek Holland, who the Rangers recently extended for several seasons. The lineup for the Rangers is largely unchanged with Mike Napoli, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Josh Hamilton returning to lead the lineup. If the lineup continues to mash and the Rangers get solid effort out of their questionable starting pitching, this division could be closer than anticipated. At the back of the division, the Athletics and Mariners will fight it out to see who can claim third place. The Athletics have always been good at finding talent to compete despite a challenging budget and finance structure in baseball but this year they went out and spent to bring in Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has responded to all of the hype (including this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej4AP-veuF8) by going 2 for 6 with a Double, a Homer, and 2 RBIs for the A's season opening series in Tokyo. If Cespedes can continue on that bath and the A's can get anything out of youngsters like Josh Reddick, Jemile Weeks, and Brandon Allen, the offense should take care of itself. The big question is pitching, where Brandon McCarthy looks to be the staff ace after his comeback season in 2011.The rest of the staff includes castoffs (Bartolo Colon,) rookies (Tom Milone, Tyson Ross,) and injury question marks (Dallas Braden.) The Mariners are awash with young talent but have been unable to make it all work in recent years. After acquiring C/DH Jesus Montero from the Yankees in the Michael Pineda trade, the Mariners can field a young lineup with Montero, star Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Casper Wells, with veteran Ichiro Suzuki still hanging in. Felix Hernandez returns to head up the pitching staff with Brandon League at the back end. The problem for the M's is production from their youngsters and all of the question marks after King Felix, including castoff Kevin Millwood and inconsistent lefty Jason Vargas. It looks to be another challenging year for Seattle.
NL East
1. Miami Marlins
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
The National League East could finally rival the American League East in the "Most Interesting Division in Baseball" category. The NL East features 4 different teams that could conceivably make the Playoffs, and win, if everything goes right. As I mentioned previously, the Marlins are a different organization than years past. Where before was a team that had a lot of talent but faded off quick, now is a team that is peppered with veteran talent and a manager that will not let them quit on themselves. If Guillen can continue to get youngsters like Stanton and Morrison to continue their development and Reyes can stay healthy, the Marlins could easily get to 95 wins and take the division. Their main competition will be the Philadelphia Phillies who will send out aces Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels on a weekly basis. Three Cy Young candidate pitchers alone will keep you in the hunt the entire season but that does not mean the Phillies are a lock by any means. They will start the season without power hitter Ryan Howard and team leader Chase Utley, more than likely for the first half of the season. Replacing one of the two would be hard enough but replacing both at the same time could be down right torturous for Charlie Manuel. There's no real relief in sight as they try to replace those two hitters with rehashes like Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton and rookie Freddy Galvis. After letting Raul Ibanez leave in the offseason, the Phillies were counting on youngster Domonic Brown to finally step up and realize his talent but Brown has already been optioned to Triple A and is staying there for the year if you believe GM Ruben Amaro. The starting pitching will keep this team in the hunt but it is hard to see how they will score enough runs to be in every game until Howard and/or Utley can return. The Atlanta Braves come into this season trying to shake off their lost Wild Card bid of 2011. Ace pitchers Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson will team with Jair Jurrjens and Brandon Beachy to keep the Braves afloat until young pitchers like Julio Teheran and Mike Minor can take the pressure off. The good news for the Braves is that their fantastic bullpen returns almost unchanged. The 7th-8th-9th inning combo of Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Craig Kimbrel returns, along with Kris Medlen to form one of the best pens in baseball. Chipper Jones will begin his final season on the DL, meaning the offense will fall largely to veterans like Dan Uggla (coming off a career year in 2011,) Michael Bourn, and Martin Prado while young stars Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward realize their potential. The Braves could be dangerous if the Phillies falter. Behind them are the Washington Nationals who continue to make strides each year. The Nationals will finally get, presumably, a full season out of young ace combo Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, along with newcomer Gio Gonzlaez. The Nationals continue to maintain Strasburg is on a 160 inning limit for the season, which would easily count them out of the division. If Strasburg can handle the workload and potentially add innings, it will take pressure off of average options like John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang and a bullpen of Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and Drew Storen. The offense will be paced by high dollar players Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, with support from Michael Morse, Adam LaRoche, the infield combo of Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. Potential June call-up Bryce Harper could add a shot in the arm to this team as well. The potential is there for Washington to make a big leap and steal a playoff spot if everything goes according to plan for manager Davey Johnson. At the back of the division rests the New York Mets who have become a financial mess due to their ownership and former GM Omar Minaya's stripping of the farm system. Most of the offensive load will rest upon David Wright's shoulders. Wright will get minimal support from Jason Bay, Lucas Duda, and potential breakout star Ike Davis. The rotation will be headlined by Johan Santana who returns from injury. Santana is somewhat of a question mark at this juncture, so unless Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, and R.A. Dickey can find a way to win 15-20 games a piece, the Mets will have a hard time winning enough to get out of the division cellar.
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros
The loss of Albert Pujols for the Cardinals really opens the door for the Cincinnati Reds to make a run at division supremacy for a long time to come. The Reds, for their part, didn't let the opportunity pass them by. Acting aggressively, the Reds went into the offseason and traded a good package for San Diego Padres ace Mat Latos. Latos immediately slots into a rotation that already includes Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Bronson Arroyo, forming a solid first 4 starters. The Reds also went out an acquired Phillies closer Ryan Madson (who has since been injured and will miss the season after having Tommy John surgery.) Madson will be missed but will be replaced more than adequately by former Cub Sean Marshall. On offense, the Reds return intact. First baseman Joey Votto was recently resigned to a 10 year, $225 million contract and will lead the offense. He will be helped by outfielders Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, and infielders Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen. If rookies Devin Mesoraco and Zack Cozart live up to their lofty status, the Reds are a nearly untouchable presence in this division. Milwaukee entered the offseason with question marks and negativity but come into the regular season looking like a team that could still compete. Prince Fielder has left to sign with the Detroit Tigers and Ryan Braun has won an appeal of his 50 game, PED related suspension. The Brewers will attempt to replace Fielder's lost production with former Cub Aramis Ramirez and young first baseman Mat Gamel but the majority of the offense will still rest on the shoulders of Braun, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart. If Braun can overcome the black cloud his name was tarnished with this offseason and repeat his 2011 MVP performance, this team will only need adequate production from Ramirez and Gamel to compete. The St. Louis Cardinals, as I mentioned, will have a completely new look this season as well. Replacing Pujols in the #3 spot in the lineup will be Matt Holliday. Behind Holliday the offense is a somewhat unknown. Lance Berkman returns after revitalizing his career a year ago with the Cardinals, Carlos Beltran was signed to play outfield and replace some offense, and David Freese will potentially be healthy and ready to produce. Allen Craig will start the season on the DL, as will infielder Skip Schumaker. The team could potentially whether the storm and steal a spot with Lohse and Jaime Garcia if Wainwright returns to form quickly and Carpenter isn't lost for the season. The Pirates were a surprise team in the first half last season but slumped down the stretch. On offense they will return homegrown stars Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker and hope the development continues for young stars like Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez. The pitching, as always, will be where this team wins or loses games. When the Pirates open their season at home against the Phillies on Thursday, Erik Bedard will draw the start opposite Roy Halladay. Behind Bedard, Kevin Correia, James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Karstens will try to draw quality starts until A.J. Burnett (acquired in a trade with the Yankees) can return from an orbital fracture suffered in Spring Training. If Bedard returns to form, Alvarez produces the way his talent should, and everything else goes right, the Pirates are a potential surprise team in the NL. At the back of the division are the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros. For both teams, good days are on the horizon but it will more than likely not be 2012. The Cubs went through an entire makeover, firing long term GM Jim Hendry and replacing him with Team President Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer, and Scouting Director Jason McLeod. The former Red Sox GM and his new staff will start small, jettisoning bad contracts and rebuilding through the draft. Until then, it will be a struggle for the Cubs to gain real traction. The Astros have spent the past few seasons sending off high paid stars and stocking the system with prospects that could eventually return the team to greatness. Their last season in the National League will not be the year that happens though. The Astros do not have a wealth of talent on the Major League roster and will struggle to reach 60 wins this season.
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants*
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
The NL West should continue to reside in the hands of the Diamondbacks in 2012. After a surprising 2011 saw them take the division under rookie manager Kirk Gibson, the D-Backs return a nearly identical team lead by superstar Justin Upton and ace pitcher Ian Kennedy. Perhaps sensing the division might be theirs to control, the Diamondbacks instead went on the offensive and acquired former Athletics starter Trevor Cahill and former Twins outfielder Jason Kubel. With Kennedy (21 game winner in 2011) and Cahill (18 game winner in 2010,) the Diamondbacks have the pair of potential aces and are followed by Daniel Hudson. A top 3 like this is almost a necessity when you are competing with teams like the Giants and the Phillies for playoff spots. The offense should continue to produce with Upton, Kubel, a full season of production from Aaron Hill and Ryan Roberts, and power hitting rookie Paul Goldschmidt coming up. The D-Backs will have a tough time with the Giants right behind them though. The Giants are armed with top 3 starters Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner and a loaded bullpen of Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson at the back. Catcher Buster Posey returns from his horrific injury in 2011 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uveVKTMTu0k) and spent part of Spring Training taking fielders at first base. If Posey can find a way to play 140 games between catcher and first, the Giants will at least have a chance of stealing this division. If they also get a return to dominance by Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff, a solid season from acquisition Melky Cabrera, and big efforts out of rookie Brandon Belt and Brett Pill, the Giants will absolutely make it a 1 or 2 game race to the finish for the division. The rest of the division is somewhat of an unknown. It is conceivable that the Colorado Rockies could make a run but their pitching will be a hindrance. Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Dexter Fowler will carry the offense, with veterans Todd Helton and Jason Giambi providing support at first base. Pitching, again, will be the wild card. The Rockies will be relying on a big season from Jeremy Guthrie (acquired from the Orioles) and youngsters Tyler Chatwood, Jhoulys Chacin, and Josh Outman. The San Diego Padres weren't content to rest on what they were building and have started to add pieces for today and not tomorrow. New Padres Owner Jeff Moorad let former GM Jed Hoyer left to take the same position with the Cubs and replaced him with former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes. Byrnes proceeded to change the makeup of the team, dealing away Mat Latos, acquiring pitchers Huston Street, Edinson Volquez, Andrew Cashner, infielder Yonder Alonso, and outfielder Carlos Quentin, and extending the contract of outfielder Cameron Maybin. These aggressive moves run counter culture to what the Padres were doing under Hoyer and are questionable, at best. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Volquez and Quentin and Cashner is a largely unproven youngster. Alonso looks like he could be a potential star but that is also questionable at this time. The Padres went for a big makeover and the results might not be seen for a few more seasons. The Dodgers are a team in transition as they go from former owner Frank McCourt to the group that includes NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson. The Dodgers return 2011 NL Cy Young Clayton Kershaw and extended star centerfielder Matt Kemp for 8 seasons. Aside from the obvious though, the Dodgers are a mash-up of unproven youngsters, underachieving veterans, and quality players looking to return to form. A lot would need to go right for the Dodgers to get out of the division cellar, including key injuries for the division rivals in front of them.
MLB Playoff Predictions
National League
Wild Card Round: #5 SF Giants over #4 Philadelphia Phillies
Divisional Series: #5 SF Giants over #1 Cincinnati Reds, #2 Arizona Diamondbacks over #3 Miami Marlins
League Championship: #2 Arizona Diamondbacks over #5 SF Giants
American League
Wild Card Round: #4 Tampa Rays over #5 Texas Rangers
Divisional Series: #4 Tampa Rays over #1 New York Yankees, #3 Los Angeles Angels over #2 Detroit Tigers
League Championship: #3 Los Angeles Angels over #4 Tampa Rays
World Series: Los Angeles Angels over Arizona Diamondbacks (4-2)
Remember, this is just my opinion based on how I feel about certain players, how divisions will play out, and other factors. Injuries or rookie call-ups can always change things and nothing is ever definite in baseball, which is one of the things that makes it the best sport in the world. Make sure to leave some comments and let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!
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