Main » 2012 » May » 4 » MLB 2012: First Month Review
5:43 PM
MLB 2012: First Month Review
With most teams somewhere between 23 and 26 games played at this point, I thought it might be fun to look back at the first month of the MLB Season and see how poorly my initial predictions for the season have played out over the first month. Predictions, as we all know, are a completely inexact science but I did think I had enough of an educated guess to take a stab at it... I was dead wrong.
So, let's look division by division at my initial predictions and how poorly I've done thus far.
AL East
My Predictions: 1. New York Yankees 2. Tampa Bay Rays 3. Boston Red Sox 4. Toronto Blue Jays 5. Baltimore Orioles
Actual Standings: 1. Tampa Bay Rays (18-8) 2. Baltimore Orioles (16-9) 3. Toronto Blue Jays (15-11) 4. New York Yankees (13-12) 5. Boston Red Sox (11-13)
This division hasn't gone anything like I thought it would. Don't get me wrong, parts of this are EXACTLY how I thought they would be. I think entering this season it was pretty obvious that the Rays pitching was the best in the division. The Rays can send out David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, James Shields, Matt Moore, etc... every five days. That is hard to beat, for sure. What I didn't see coming was how Toronto's pitching would fair this early into the year. I earmarked Toronto as a team to possibly watch because their offense was so good and their pitching was young with high ceilings. Toronto has made that happen quicker than I anticipated, with a staff that sits in the middle of MLB in the four major team pitching categories (ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP, BAA.) The Yankees are the opposite side of that coin, struggling because of their issues with their starting pitchers. The Yankees are in the Top 10 of every major team batting category (Runs, AVG, OBP, SLG), and in the Bottom 5 of 3 out of the 4 categories in team pitching. Compound that with the bullpen issues (after Mariano Rivera suffered a Torn ACL on May 3rd) and the Yankees are going to struggle to right the ship. As for my beloved Red Sox, this is sadly how I predicted this season would go. The Red Sox have a perfect storm brewing right now of inept managing, a cancerous club house, and a pitching staff that is desperately struggling to stay out of the Bottom 5 in the league. The only saving grace is the lineup, which is itself struggling through the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury and a season opening slump from Adrian Gonzalez. I fear it's not going to get better any time soon, sadly.
AL Central
My Predictions: 1. Detroit Tigers 2. Cleveland Indians 3. Minnesota Twins 4. Kansas City Royals 5. Chicago White Sox
Actual Standings: 1. Cleveland Indians (13-10) 2. Detroit Tigers (12-12) 3. Chicago White Sox (12-13) 4. Kansas City Royals (8-16) 5. Minnesota Twins (6-18)
A lot of my predictions for the AL Central are trending towards spot on as of now, except for the struggles of the Minnesota Twins. I don't think it's that the Twins don't have the talent, I believe they do. The problem with the Twins seems to be in execution. The offense has struggled, placing no higher than 14th in the league in any of the 4 major team batting categories, and the pitching has performed even worse, placing dead last in 3 of the 4 major team batting categories. The Twins starting pitching is a large contributing factor to those numbers and it doesn't seem like that will get better any time soon. For a team that lost an astounding amount of games a year ago, with a roster that should've won, a start like this can't be encouraging. As for the rest of the division, I think it's played out mostly the way I thought it would, with Cleveland and Detroit as the class of the division. Detroit, despite their slow start, is poised to run away with this thing when their starting pitching rebounds. Justin Verlander has been absolutely nasty but the struggles of youngsters like Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer has limited Detroit's effectiveness. When Doug Fister returns from injury Detroit should get a small boost. If they can package that along with a sly trade target, perhaps Houston's Wandy Rodriguez, Detroit is well positioned in terms of offense and record to make a run. The White Sox have been a pleasant surprise thus far. Their pitching has bordered on great (as evidenced by Phil Humber's Perfect Game) but the hitting remains anemic, with several hitters hitting well below .250. If the team can turn the hitting around, who knows, maybe they challenge for 2nd in the division, or better.
AL West
My Predictions: 1. Los Angeles Angels 2. Texas Rangers 3. Oakland Athletics 4. Seattle Mariners
Actual Standings: 1. Texas Rangers (17-8) 2. Oakland Athletics (13-13) 3. Seattle Mariners (11-16) 4. Los Angeles Angels (10-16)
My predictions in this division have held through the first month, just placing the Angels at the bottom instead of the top. The Texas Rangers have been VERY good to start the young season, and it has all started with their new ace, Yu Darvish. Darvish didn't look great in his first start of the year but has been dynamite since, compiling a stat line of 4-0, 2.18 ERA, 33 K's, and a 1.42 WHIP in 5 starts. For a team that had serious pitching questions after letting CJ Wilson walk to the division rival Angels and moving their young closer into the rotation, Darvish has been a BIG win for the Rangers. Neftali Feliz has also been a minor hit since moving from the closer spot and into the rotation, with a 1-1 record and a 3.81 ERA. Texas is just an incredibly balance team, with an offense that ranks 1st or 2nd in MLB in all 4 major team batting categories, and a pitching staff that is in the Top 10 of every major team pitching category. The Athletics have been a pleasant surprise, reaching levels that I didn't think they could get to thus far. A large part of that has been the early success this year of Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon atop the Oakland rotation and the play of Jarrod Parker in 2 starts since his surprising early season call up. The Oakland offense is still in the Bottom 5 of the league but the potential is there with plenty of younger, developing bodies in the lineup. This is a team that could be very dangerous moving forward if potential is reached this year. As for the Angels, this has to be a disappointing start to the year for the brass in Anaheim. The Angels had all sorts of hype coming in after signing Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson but the production hasn't been there. The pitching staff has been a major strength, with Jered Weaver (a No-Hitter this week), Dan Haren, Wilson, and Ervin Santana all having pitched well to start the year. The bullpen is a major source of concern though, as closer Jordan Walden has really struggled and the rest of the pen offering no solutions. Look for the Angels to get involved in the chase for some of the better trade bait relievers, such as Joel Hanrahan (PIT) or Brandon League (SEA.) There is no historical precedent for the way Pujols has struggled this year and as such, Pujols should be looked at to rebound and gel the lineup together. Kendrys Morales has not disappointed in his return and will form a solid 1-2 punch when Pujols returns to form.
NL East
My Predictions: 1. Miami Marlins 2. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Atlanta Braves 4. Washington Nationals 5. New York Mets
Actual Standings: 1. Washington Nationals (16-9) 2. Atlanta Braves (15-11) 3. New York Mets (13-12) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (13-13) 5. Miami Marlins (11-14)
This division has been possibly the most interesting in baseball during the first month of the season. The Nationals have been the surprise team thus far, with a pitching staff that has been lights out thus far. Stephen Strasburg (2-0, 1.13 ERA, 5 Starts), Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 1.82 ERA, 5GS), Jordan Zimmerman (1-2, 1.89 ERA, 5GS), and Ross Detweiler (3-1, 1.59 ERA, 5GS), who shockingly beat out John Lannan for the 5th Starter's job, have combined to form one of the best rotations in the league, and that's not even including 4th Start Edwin Jackson, who has been league average. The bullpen offers no rest for opposing lineups either. The Nationals have done all this without Ryan Zimmerman (currently on the 15 Day DL), who has missed significant time, and Michael Morse, who has yet to play this season. The team got a shot in the arm the past week with the shocking call-up of #1 Prospect Bryce Harper, who has responded by hitting .375 in his first 5 games. When this team gets Zimmerman and Morse healthy, and if the pitching holds form, the Nationals are going to run away with the division. Right behind them are the Atlanta Braves who have reversed their normal form by scoring runs and not pitching up to snuff. The Braves have been hampered by injuries in the first month, with Tim Hudson missing time and Tommy Hanson recovering from Spring Training injuries, and poor performance out of young pitchers Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. The pleasant surprise of the rotation thus far has been Brandon Beachy with a 2-1 record and a 1.38 ERA in 5 starts. The offense has been pacing well for the Braves and they should remain around 2nd or 3rd in the division all season. The Phillies and Marlins have gotten off to rough starts due to a variety of factors. For the Phillies, injuries to top players (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) have forced Charlie Manuel's hand, often leading to sub par lineups, featuring a who's who of second rate talent. Juan Pierre, Laynce Nix, Ty Wigginton, and Pete Orr have all seen extended playing time for the Phillies this season, which should tell you all you need to know about the situation in South Philadelphia right now. This is a team that gets solid pitching performances but struggles to score runs at any sort of healthy rate. For the Marlins, I believe the problem is more about teamwork. The Marlins put together a lot of new talent this off season and paired it with a manager, Ozzie Guillen, who isn't known for being calm, understanding, and reasonable. Omar Infante leads the team in Average and Home Runs, not a good sign, while young slugger Giancarlo Stanton has struggled to find his stroke. Jose Reyes is batting .226, Hanley Ramirez is batting under .200, and Gaby Sanchez isn't far off AT .200. Meanwhile, the starting pitching has maintained solid performance despite not picking up wins. Every Marlins Starter has at least 3 Quality Starts out of 5 Starts a piece. The run support simply hasn't been there, along with a bullpen that has struggled through new closer Heath Bell's 11.74 ERA. This team is a mess right now and it may be hard to recover with a manager like Guillen at the helm.
NL Central
My Predictions: 1. Cincinnati Reds 2. Milwaukee Brewers 3. St. Louis Cardinals 4. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Chicago Cubs 6. Houston Astros
Actual Standings: 1. St. Louis Cardinals (16-9) 2. Cincinnati Reds (12-12) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (11-14) 4. Houston Astros (11-14) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (11-14) 6. Chicago Cubs (9-16)
The one thing that has shocked me in this division is how well the Cardinals have started out. I really did believe that the Cardinals would struggle a bit after losing Albert Pujols to Free Agency and Chris Carpenter to injury. The Cardinals have simply found ways to endure, which they generally always do. The pitching staff has managed to be VERY good, with Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia all posting good starts to the year with at least 4 Quality Starts a piece. Lynn and Lohse each are unbeaten (5-0 and 4-0 respectively) and have sub 2.00 ERAs (1.60 and 1.62.) If Adam Wainwright finds his pre Tommy John form and recovers, the pitching staff will keep St. Louis in any game this season. On the batting side, the Cardinals continue to find answers, even though two of their bigger offensive forces (Lance Berkman and Allen Craig) have missed significant time. The Cardinals have found solid performances from Rafael Furcal (batting .330 with a .398 OBP), David Freese (6HR 24RBI), and Yadier Molina. Bringing up the back of the division is the Chicago Cubs, which can't come as any large surprise. The Cubs have had some great individual performers, such as Starter Ryan Dempster (0-1, 0.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) and journeyman First Baseman Bryan LaHair (.371 AVG, 7 HR, 16 RBI), but the team has largely struggled to produce. Things could get better now that the Cubs have yanked Carlos Marmol from the closer's role. If Starlin Castro gets really hot and some surprising bats catch fire, Chicago could at least make it to "Respectable" status this season. The middle of the division has been a mish mash of teams that get some great performances on some nights, and lousy performances on others. Inconsistency rules in the NL Central right now, save the work of the Cardinals and the struggles of the Cubs.
NL West
My Predictions: 1. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. San Francisco Giants 3. Colorado Rockies 4. San Diego Padres 5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Standings: 1. Los Angeles Dodgers (17-8) 2. Colorado Rockies (12-12) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (13-13) 4. San Francisco Giants (12-13) 5. San Diego Padres (9-17)
This division could not be more wrong for me. I stand corrected that the Dodgers only prayers were injuries to the teams in front of them. The Dodgers have jumped out to the division lead by sporting the best starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) and best position player (Matt Kemp) in the National League. Kemp is unbelievable, after having possibly just put up the best first month of a season in MLB History (.411 AVG, .500 OBP, 27 Runs, 12 HR, 25 RBI.) The numbers Kemp has put up thus far are ridiculous. As for Kershaw, he's been respectable (2-0, 2.63 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 6 starts) but has really been helped by the work of the other starters. Something of a question mark entering the year, the Dodgers back 4 (Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang) have combined for a 9-3 record and 13 Quality Starts in 19 non-Kershaw starts. With the sale of the team from Frank McCourt to the Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten group, the Dodgers will more than likely now look to add payroll and compete harder. The Dodgers are a team to watch the rest of the year given their early season success. The Diamondbacks, who I picked to win the division, are at .500 and mostly because of their pitching staff. Daniel Hudson made 3 starts before going on the 15 Day DL, Josh Collmenter didn't have one Quality Start in 4 tries, and the closing situation with JJ Putz has been a disaster. On the plus side, Wade Miley (Hudson's replacement) has been more than serviceable (3-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 2 starts) and Joe Saunders has been lights out 5 starts into his second season in the desert. With Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and the combo of Miley and Saunders, the D-Backs rotation looks to have stabilized recently. Arizona hasn't gotten elite hitting from anyone except Free Agent pickup Jason Kubel but history tells us Justin Upton, Aaron Hill, and Miguel Montero will turn it up before long. The Rockies and Giants are opposite image teams right now. The Rockies have elite hitting for the NL, lead by Carlos Gonzalez (.310 AVG, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 21 Runs) but atrocious pitching, ranking in the Bottom 4 in every major team pitching category. The Giants, meanwhile, have gotten adequate pitching (Top 15 in every major team pitching category) but hitting that doesn't hold up. After making several big off season moves aimed to "Win Now," the Padres are dragging up the rear in the division and don't seem close to pulling out of it.
So there you have it. My predictions have been pretty far off thus far but isn't that the great thing about baseball? On paper, several teams looked like they had the 25-Man Roster to pull off a World Series crown this year. We're only a month in and at least half of those hopes have been dashed and quite a few more look shaky without substantial moves. That's why they don't play the games on paper and why baseball remains the best game in the world.
As always, leave me any comments, hate speech, or thoughts you may or may not have. Also, check out the twitter (@MattB928) thing I'm trying to learn how to do for any updates, comments, concerns, or random thoughts I may have.
ROFL, you ass. I just meant I had the order right, mostly. Take the Angels from the top and put them at the bottom, it's like getting to the end of a rope and finding out that it ends where you started at.
